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A Universal Basic Income offers a means of addressing structural inequality exacerbated by the pandemic


Over the centuries, the creation of money as a universally-accepted payment mechanism has facilitated a huge advancement in what the human race has been able to accomplish. Its development acted as a means of unifying people from different corners of the globe, expediting prosperous trade networks and enriching cultural cohesion. Subsequently, it goes without saying that, like it or not (and I certainly don't), you need money and resources to survive in the modern world. 

Sadly, that is a luxury many don't have. For all our advancements since the introduction of capital, financial inequalities that plagued feudal systems in the Middle Ages are still present in 21st century society. In the UK, many people are underpaid and overworked, forced to be dependent on foodbanks, benefits and charity because of inhumane working conditions. The result is that around 23% of the UK population are living in poverty, including 700,000 driven in by the effects of COVID-19.

The negative repercussions of the aforementioned pandemic are monumental. And with big problems must come big solutions. It's time to channel our ever-proliferating cash obsession into change that will support not only those in poverty, but everyone. It's time for a Universal Basic Income (UBI) in the UK.

The idealist in me was wholly supportive of a UBI when I first came across the idea of effectively giving people money, reading Rutger Bregman's Utopia For Realists a couple of years ago. But I also met it with some scepticism, which I'm sure will be shared by readers. Can we afford it? Won't people stop working? Do we actually need it? Won't we just have really high inflation? Is it even fair?

These are all common reactions to the idea, and that is understandable because the notion is so flummoxing and alien to many. The more research I have done, particularly in the last couple of months, the more I've been convinced that these arguments have little grounding. It is impossible for me to persuade any sceptic in one article - but a post-pandemic future gives us an opportunity to combat inequality, and I want to try and encourage policies that can have long-lasting change. 

Why we need a UBI now:

It is no secret that inequality has been rising substantially in the UK in a decade riddled with austerity policies after the 2008 financial crash. According to the Equality Trust, in 2018, the richest 20% of the country held an income 12 times higher than the poorest 20%, and the top 1% alone have 13% of wealth in the country. At the same time, the number of people using food banks has risen exponentially in the last decade, up at nearly 2 million in the year 2019/20. 

I could throw statistics at you all day, but I needn't. The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated these divisions in wealth, but also shown us the need for change is paramount. When Chancellor Rishi Sunak introduced the "furlough scheme" last April that allowed businesses to claim 80% of wages onto the government, it was widely welcomed by the population. Throughout lockdowns, where people have been unable to work, it has offered a security net to pay rent, living costs and for basic necessities. The principle underlying a UBI is that same safety blanket - except it is universal.

The current benefit systems in the UK aren't fit for purpose. Universal Credit is built off the assumption that people will try to cheat the system. When you draw a line as to who "deserves" support, you waste time and money testing people. You introduce the potential for errors; false negatives (people who qualify for support but don't receive it), and false positives (people who don't qualify for support, but get it). The less means-testing there was with the furlough scheme, the more people able to get their money quickly - which we can all agree was vital with an unprecedented catastrophe like the pandemic. Giving money without conditionality avoids these problems.

Right now, poverty alleviation systems like benefits are so fraught with conditions (you must have x, y and z to qualify) that they ironically prevent people using them from seeking work. Why would the unemployed look for even a part-time job if they have their whole monetary support network threatened?

Fundamentally, a basic income liberates people. Imagine receiving an amount every month just because you are a citizen. No-one is telling you what you can/can't do with it. You can save it for long-term security, or use it on basic necessities month-by-month. Imagine the potential.

"We can't afford that" - the Money Argument:

Credit: The Toronto Star
Intentionally, I have painted a rosy picture of life with a UBI because I know there are practical concerns people have with the concept. The principal one, put to anyone proposing it, is the question if we can actually afford it?

Well, in honesty, poverty itself is expensive. With a capital E. Possibly even £78 billion per year is spent on lost tax revenue and additional benefits spending resulting from the causes of poverty, which demonstrates how beneficial it is to the average UK taxpayer to alleviate it.

When thinking about a implementing a UBI, the cost needs to be calculated as a "net transfer". That is effectively asking "how much of a UBI is already covered by current benefit systems?". Some benefit systems would remain, but the scrapping of means-tested conditional benefits would contribute to funding a UBI.

Although there has been only some research done specifically in the UK around a UBI, models suggest that up to £10,000 a year could be given per family through a partial scheme at a gross cost of £300bn per year. This would however be a net transfer of only £182bn, as it could save £118bn in benefits. Through raising income tax allowances and abolishing personal allowances, the net cost of at least a partial basic income could come close to nothing.  

More detailed studies have been done in the U.S., aiming higher at giving £12,000 per adult per year. The concept remains the same. UBI engulfs the costs of benefits systems, and uses taxes that target the richest 10% to no real detriment to them to pay for the rest. 

The other main economic objection to a UBI is the conception that it would cause inflation to skyrocket, which Scott Santens termed the "New Zero Argument". But contrary to what many think, a UBI is not printing money. As mentioned before, funding a UBI is already money from within the system (benefits and tax rises). 

Santens considers 4 examples to dispel this myth. The first is the basics of supply and demand, which is unaffected by a UBI because it is existing money. Where demand does increase, supply can be either be increased or ignored. In the latter case prices would rise, but this suggests that only luxuries would increase in price. After all, all basic necessities are used by everyone already.

Concern about increased rent with a UBI also worries people. But in the UK, there are around 3 times as many empty houses as there are currently homeless. This suggests that all a basic income will do is lift those people back into housing at no difference to the rest of the housing market.

Santens also highlights a common argument that people would spend unearned income more lavishly and drive up prices of goods and services. But like the previous two points, the opposite has been observed in Alaska, where there is a form of Partial Basic Income. There, unearned money is spent similarly and inflation has dropped from above to below average inflation rates in the U.S.

The easy answer to the money worries? UBI is affordable and practical in the markets, as shown by examples and theoretical evidence.

"No-one will work" - Are people too lazy for a UBI?

Another assumption made against UBI is the suggestion that everyone would just stop working if they had basic security. And it is a fair concern. People need a motivation to work, society has so often said, and taking the threat of insecurity away from them would remove that incentive - so they'd become lazy.

The problem with that premise is that it's pretty much like saying "we should force people to work by taking away their basic security". It's trapping individuals in a society where they have no choice but to bust-a-gut to live. When 37% of British workers think their job is making no meaningful contribution to the world, is that really a good thing?

Ideally, we would have three choices; to work for others, to work for ourselves, or to do no work. Because of the interconnectedness of society today, we can only work for others. To be "self-employed" don't you need something to start-up? For many, finances, education and competition are barriers to making this a reality. If you choose to not work and become homeless, you still work to find food, places to sleep, and avoid law enforcement.

The current system is constructed for us to work for others. No wonder so many people don't think their job means anything, eh?

With the introduction of a UBI, we have all three choices. If you want to work for others as a supplementary wage to your safety net, fine. If you want to enter into a creative venture and enter a more meaningful job, fine. If you don't want to work, fine. 

But most of us will work. Why would we stop working to meet all our needs just because we have some basic safety? Your work will still fund that new TV, that shiny car, that expensive holiday. You're not going to give that up just because you've got a house and enough food - and it would be silly to pretend otherwise.

Improved wellbeing, security and society - what the evidence says

UBI has been piloted around the world, for decades now, and guess what? It's been a success every time. 

In the 1970's Richard Nixon nearly implemented a Negative Income Tax in the US paying families $10,000. Trials in certain states made the "laziness" perception a myth, but a policy advisor wholly opposed to it convinced Nixon against it - off the back of a flawed experiment 150 years earlier. A 1974 pilot in Canada illustrated the same thing, but it was scrapped when a more conservative government entered power.

In more contemporary times, Finland's much-maligned experiment improved mental wellbeing among participants, and allowed people to pursue more create ventures. Analysis of an ongoing pilot in Stockton, California has so far shown similar findings, and a non-governmental organisation GiveDirectly are giving grants to people in Uganda and Kenya, and the positive economic results are profound, permeating through individuals, villages and communities. 

The future - a world worth fighting for

There is ample political and social division in the UK, but the one thing that most agree with is the brilliance of the NHS. That same NHS that was born out of devastation caused by World War II. As we emerge from the single most impactful event since, it's time for new policies that take us forward.

A Universal Basic Income is - as people have cliched - this generation's NHS. It champions the good in people, creating a society based off trust rather than distrust. It lifts people out of the despair of poverty that no human deserves. It gives people agency over their own lives and empowers them to create a better society.

I said at the start that there is little chance of me convincing a sceptic in this article, but if you are still reading now, it's time to make this part of the conversation. I'd love to hear your views on its strengths, weaknesses, viability - because communication is the only way of education. 

Whether it is through a basic income or not, the pandemic offers us a chance to put innovation on the agenda, political, socially and economically. My audience are likely the next generation, so this is a call to them: use your voice and look to what can be improved. Because we can only do that together.

Specifically for a Universal Basic Income, I want to use what knowledge I have gained and share it. In lieu of that, I have created an Instagram account @basicincomeforchange, where I want to try and spread knowledge and awareness around the concept (because it is difficult to unpack - I know!).

For a long time, I have felt distrusting of the world, that I can't change anything. But where is change going to come from if not from ourselves? I hear people say we are not like our parents, that we are more accepting - and it is true, we have lots more acceptance towards race, gender, sex, stigmas and disabilities. 

But that has to be put into action. And policy change should be right at the top of the agenda.

You can probably tell by now, but I absolutely love the idea of a UBI. It seems grossly unfair that people are forced to spend a life living in poor conditions, working awful hours and spending their lives filled with misery. We have created such a complicated society, that we've forgotten what's most important - that everyone can not have to worry about basic needs.

Some will say "that's just how the world is". No, that's how we've made it. By embracing a Universal Basic Income, we can offer everyone security and a chance to live the life they desire. Because if we are not on Earth to accomplish that - then what are we here for?

Comments

  1. There are fundamental flaws in Scott Satens argument for UBI. His "New Zero Argument" uses a superficial understanding of Inflation, which may stem from the fact that he is a psychologist in an economist's world. Inflation, can be driven through cost push or demand pull; whilst he ultimately mentions the cost push aspect, demand pull inflation is the most frightening.

    Demand pull inflation is derived from simple concepts. We have finite resources in the world. Which means ultimately we can only produce a finite amount of goods/services. Currency/barter systems throughout history have been a way of rationing the goods/services to those willing and able to buy. Ultimately, this rationing effect is inevitable unless government intervenes. Let me give you a very simplified example. I'm a shopkeeper and I have a chocolate bar worth £1,000 (ridiculous yes but by design), only those that can afford the chocolate bar will be able to buy it. At present, only 1 person can afford it. Now, through unforseen circumstances, income levels across the country rise, now 10 people can afford my chocolate bar. However I do not have the capacity to produce more than one chocolate bar (this is the concept that supply in the short term is fixed, plenty of research has shown that to increase supply it takes time). So how do I manage this demand as the shopkeeper? Well, I raise the price! Now the price jumps to £1500. What have I just done? I've priced out those new customers because in the short term I cannot meet demand (now you may argue why would the shopkeeper do this, because it's in his interests, and any successful business person would raise their prices). To successfully challenge this mechanism you would need the government to intervene and prevent a business owner from raising prices, or for the business owner not to be acting in his own interest. If the government has that level of intervention across different markets, which any business owner would oppose, we'd effectively be living in a communist state... Because through economic definition, a state where supply decisions are made by the government, is effectively a communist state. (I do exaggerate for effect)

    Any demand and supply diagram will show you that a rightward shift of the demand curve (i.e. increase in demand) will always lead to a rise in the price! (Assuming supply is held constant which it often is in practice)

    As you highlight, UBI would not necessarily require "printing money", but that is not the type of inflation I fear as an economist. The redistribution of income on a mass scale has effects, which based on current economic evidence, could lead to hyperinflation. Why? Because it is well documented that the Marginal Propensity to Consume, the MPC of those in "lower socio-economic"/"low-earning households is higher". What does this mean? In lower income groups, the trend is for each £1 of their income, they spend almost 93 pence. In the higher income groups, this falls to 15 pence being spent for every £1 earned. (Again academic research conducted by economists)

    So combine the two effects of higher MPC in low income groups and demand pull inflation and you can see why economists are extremely concerned. Introducing UBI into low income groups which generally spend more... Well if they spend more, that logically means demand in the economy rises, and supply in the short term will not be able to keep up, which will ultimately lead to a rise in prices and therefore by definition inflationary pressure.

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  2. (continuing from previous comment)Now you may argue that in trials there is evidence contrary to this inflationary pressure, and as you point out that the inflationary pressure would be only on luxuries and goods of desire but not necessity... Again this is deeply concerning, in a way I'm grateful to you for citing your sources, because if you actually explore the findings of the SEED programme in California it corroborates the fear of economists! Almost all participants were spending the extra income on necessities! Rent, food, clothing, education.... Etc etc. So if you replicated the SEED programme on a national level, you would see more demand for food, clothing, rent... More demand (but supply being fixed in the short term means inflation)! On a national scale, not regional!

    Give directly findings showed increased consumption, albeit a small level of local inflation (1%) (although they actually cite a paper that emulated similar research and found 5%- 7% inflation in the Philippines)... But giving you the benefit of the doubt with 1%, if you were to compound this effect on a national level, you can see the concern. Because ultimately, if only one region sees an increase in demand, supply can be increased. Suppliers can divert supplies from other regions, or suppliers from other regions can expand into this market and the effect is somewhat negated. But on a national scale, supply cannot adjust quickly enough! Not to mention reduced labour force participation which you do mention could contribute to higher production costs, as labour supply falls and wages inevitably rise. So now you'd have both a demand pull and cost push effect, not on a regional but on a national scale.

    It may seem like I'm scaremongering or exaggerating. As an economist, having seen the results of many of the papers you cited, the economic case for UBI remains extremely concerning. What we need is a trial, not just localised, but nationalised. To successfully pull off UBI you would need government intervention into business on an unprecedented scale to prevent prices rising, which inevitably means a larger public sector.

    I work in the public sector, and I assure you, though practically everyone I know has your best interest at heart, the concept of large public sector and heavy government intervention is uncomfortable for those that do not easily trust the government. One does not need to dive deep into the history books to find evidence of the drawbacks of large public sectors and heavy government intervention. I'm not sure I'm comfortable with the idea of giving up that much power to any government, elected or not.

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